With the 2024 Presidential election approaching, many homeowners and potential buyers may be wondering: How does an election impact the housing market? Let’s break down what typically happens during an election year and why sales usually bounce back after the votes are in.
Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown
In any given year, home sales naturally slow in the fall—it’s part of the usual seasonal trend. However, data from BTIG shows that in election years, the dip in sales tends to be a little more pronounced as Election Day draws near.
Why the Additional Slowdown?
The primary reason is uncertainty. Many people feel uneasy making significant decisions, like buying or selling a home, when the political landscape is in flux. This hesitation impacts the housing market, as buyers and sellers wait to see the outcome of the election before making their next move. A recent survey from Redfin supports this, showing that nearly 23% of first-time homebuyers are holding off until after the election—a sign of how uncertainty affects decision-making for many.
Home Sales Typically Bounce Back After the Election
The good news is that the dip in sales before the election doesn’t mean those transactions are lost. In fact, history shows that sales usually recover after the election dust settles. According to historical data, home sales have increased 82% of the time in the year following an election.
Why? When the political uncertainty clears, buyers and sellers tend to feel more confident about moving forward with their plans, resulting in a post-election sales boost.
What to Expect in 2025
If past trends continue, we can anticipate an increase in home sales next year. Current forecasts already project a jump, with 4.6 million homes expected to sell by the end of this year and 5.2 million forecasted for 2025.
This aligns with the historical pattern of a post-election rebound. For buyers and sellers, this means that while the market may feel a bit slower now, it’s likely just a temporary dip. As we move beyond the election, the market is expected to regain momentum.
Bottom Line
Election years often bring a short-term pause in the housing market, but this slowdown is usually temporary. History and data show that home sales typically pick up the year following a Presidential election, and 2025 looks to be no different. So if you’re holding off on a real estate move, remember that the market is expected to gain speed again in the months ahead, offering promising opportunities for both buyers and sellers.